Can India balance its ties between Russia and the US?

New Delhi navigates a complex geopolitical landscape amid intensifying global rivalries

(Newsvow | International Desk)

As geopolitical competition deepens between major powers, India is increasingly being viewed as a pivotal state capable of shaping the balance between a resurgent Russia and an assertive United States. Analysts say New Delhi is attempting to preserve strategic flexibility by maintaining parallel partnerships with both countries — a strategy that has defined Indian foreign policy for decades but is now facing renewed scrutiny.

■ Russia: A Legacy Partner India Still Relies On

Despite global pressure following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine and the deterioration of Russia’s ties with the West, Indian officials continue to emphasize the importance of their longstanding relationship.

Russia remains India’s largest supplier of defense equipment, accounting for an estimated 60–70% of India’s legacy military platforms, including aircraft, tanks, and naval systems. In addition, India has become one of the largest purchasers of discounted Russian crude oil, helping New Delhi stabilize domestic inflation during a period of global energy volatility.

Diplomats note that Russia has historically supported India in multilateral forums and does not impose political or ideological conditions on cooperation — a factor Indian policymakers continue to value.

■ The United States: India’s Critical Technology and Security Partner

At the same time, India’s partnership with the United States has expanded rapidly across technology, defense-industrial cooperation, and regional security.
The U.S. is now one of India’s largest trading partners and a key source of semiconductor cooperation, AI collaboration, defense co-production, and private investment inflows.

Washington views India as a central pillar of the Indo-Pacific strategy and a counterbalance to China’s growing power. This has accelerated security cooperation through the Quad (with Japan and Australia) and strengthened joint military exercises, intelligence sharing, and space cooperation.

Senior U.S. officials frequently highlight India as a “critical strategic partner,” underscoring Washington’s long-term ambition to anchor New Delhi firmly within the U.S.-led security architecture.

■ Between Two Partners: India’s Strategic Hedging

Indian policymakers say the country does not seek alignment with any single bloc and will instead pursue “strategic autonomy” — a long-standing doctrine aimed at maximizing diplomatic flexibility.

In practice, this means India has:

• Continued large-scale crude oil imports from Russia

• Maintained defense cooperation with Moscow

• Expanded technology and security partnership with Washington

• Avoided joining Western sanctions against Russia

• Strengthened supply-chain and cybersecurity cooperation with the U.S.

• Refrained from endorsing any military alignments that limit autonomy

Foreign-policy experts describe this approach as “strategic hedging,” enabling India to preserve maneuvering space while extracting benefits from both sides.

■ The China Factor: The Issue Driving India Toward Washington

Analysts widely agree that China is the single issue most likely to influence the trajectory of India’s balancing act.
Border clashes, competition for influence in the Indian Ocean, and widening economic asymmetries have pushed India to deepen security cooperation with the United States and other Indo-Pacific partners.

While Russia remains important, Moscow’s increasing dependence on Beijing limits its ability to act as a strategic buffer for India. For this reason, experts say India’s long-term defense and economic modernization efforts are more closely tied to U.S. technology and partnerships.

■ How Financial Markets View India’s Balancing Strategy

Global investors generally interpret India’s dual engagement with Russia and the United States as a source of policy stability, not unpredictability.
Because India avoids binding alliances, markets perceive lower geopolitical alignment risk and a more predictable economic environment.

Record foreign direct investment (FDI) into Indian technology, manufacturing, and renewable energy sectors reflects confidence that India can manage great-power tensions without destabilizing economic policy.

■ Outlook: A Balancing Act Likely to Continue

Diplomatic analysts say New Delhi’s ability to maintain balanced ties with both Moscow and Washington will depend on several key variables:

• The trajectory of the Russia–China partnership

• U.S. expectations regarding India’s role in Indo-Pacific security

• Stability along the India–China border

• The pace of India’s defense modernization

• India’s growing economic ambitions and rising global profile

While pressures may intensify, experts note that neither Washington nor Moscow wants to risk alienating India, given its growing economic and geopolitical significance.

For now, India appears positioned to continue its dual-track strategy — leveraging Russia for legacy security needs while depending increasingly on the United States for long-term technological and strategic advancement.

Socko/Ghost